The probability of ECOWAS, with Nigeria on the forefront, pursuing navy motion towards Niger appears minimal.

In anticipation of the upcoming ECOWAS summit, insiders from the Nigerian authorities point out that the West African coalition gained’t assist navy motion in Niger following the current coup there.

A key driver behind this sentiment is Nigeria’s influential entities’ push for peaceable dialogue.

Notably, home pressures, together with from the nation’s distinguished Muslim leaders and the political institution, emphasize the necessity for restraint and dialogue reasonably than navy intervention.

The Nigeria Parliament and the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs (NSCIA) advocate for dialogue and warning towards intensifying sanctions on Niger.

Their considerations spotlight the long-standing relationship between the 2 international locations, emphasizing Niger’s assist in Nigeria’s struggle towards extremism.

Monetary concerns additionally play a big function.

Nigeria, nonetheless grappling with an financial downturn, can not bear the monetary load of a possible battle.

Previous navy engagements in Liberia and Sierra Leone, which drained about US$12 billion from Nigeria’s coffers, are a stark reminder of the monetary implications.

Moreover, given the continuing battles towards insurgencies domestically, Nigeria’s navy assets are stretched.

As Niger initiates strikes in direction of restoring democracy by appointing an interim prime minister, the main focus for ECOWAS and Nigeria appears to tilt in direction of diplomatic resolutions as an alternative of navy interventions.

Skilled David Aworawo means that ECOWAS will possible pursue a peaceable decision, emphasizing the return to civilian rule in Niger.

He advises warning, reflecting on previous profitable diplomatic resolutions within the area, and factors out the potential adverse impacts of navy motion on regional unity and security.